Population-Density Bounds for 100% Domestic Renewable Energy Generation

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Population-Density Bounds for 100% Domestic Renewable Energy Generation

Dorte Nørgaard Madsen, Jan Petter Hansen, and Jan Emblemsvåg

PRX Energy 3, 013002 – Published 12 January 2024

Abstract

The long-running discussion on the global theoretical and practical potential of renewable energy is strongly affected by the size and connectivity of power networks. Small regional and national networks driven predominantly by intermittent and variable energy sources will require significantly more back-up power than continental networks containing a variety of weather zones. Thus, large networks will require less back-up but this comes with the drawback that some nations or regions rely on import from others. For example, in Europe in 2022, energy dependence on gas imports from Russia led to energy shortages and escalating prices. In this work, we estimate the limits of primary energy supply based on renewables, mainly solar photovoltaic (PV) sources and wind, in this setting. Taking as a starting point an average of 14 European countries, we find the mean energy consumption per unit time in what we argue is sufficient and necessary power per capita to maintain a sustainable life. The required energy generation is then translated into an area of energy production that, together with estimated area requirements for biological diversity, food, and infrastructure, constitutes a given fraction of the land area. When compared with typical human population densities, we find that before reaching one person per hectare, the area requirements exceed what is available. The results support the part of the scientific community that claims that a 100% renewable global power supply is unrealistic, especially as the world population steadily grows toward $10 \times 10^{9}$ people.

Received 20 June 2023
Revised 31 October 2023
Accepted 19 December 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PRXEnergy.3.013002

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article's title, journal citation, and DOI.

Published by the American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Energy sources Energy storage Solar energy Wind energy

Energy Science & Technology

Authors & Affiliations

Dorte Nørgaard Madsen ¹, Jan Petter Hansen ^1,*, and Jan Emblemsvåg ^2,†

¹Department of Physics and Technology, University of Bergen, Allégaten 55, Bergen N-2007, Norway
²Department of Ocean Operations and Civil Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 6025 Ålesund, Norway

^*jan.hansen@uib.no
^†jan.emblemsvag@ntnu.no

Popular Summary

The feasibility of transitioning entirely to renewable energy depends on factors like the size and connectivity of power networks and the types of energy sources used. In this study, the authors assess the potential of countries to achieve a sustainable standard of living solely through domestic renewable energy. Using data from 14 European countries and a hypothetical ‘One Hectare Country’ model with one person per hectare, they analyze energy requirements and land impact. The study concludes that countries with population densities above 50 people per square kilometer are unlikely to achieve 100% renewable energy production while maintaining the assumed standard of living. Conversely, countries with lower population densities have better prospects for achieving this goal.

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Vol. 3, Iss. 1 — January - March 2024

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Figure 1
(a) The global total power (energy per year) per capita as function of time (years) with color-coded contributions from all main energy sources. The red line (with the $y$ axis to the right) shows the global population for the same time period. (b) The power per capita of some selected countries around the world and in 14 selected European countries. The average power consumption per capita of the 14 selected European countries is shown by a red vertical line. The data are from Refs. [3, 16]. The real power contribution (the direct method) from nonfossil energy sources has been used, i.e. a factor of 0.4 of the adjusted values in Ref. [16]. RN, renewable bioenergy.
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Figure 2
A graphical representation of the replacement of oil based on the distribution of total oil use in different applications in the EU region. The colors on the left-hand side indicate different areas of application [brown, nonenergy uses; light gray: energy uses divided into transport (blue), private households (purple), and industry and other energy uses (dark gray)]. The colors on the right-hand side indicate decreased energy consumption (green), increased energy consumption (orange), and unchanged energy consumption (yellow).
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Figure 3
The power per capita as from Fig. 1 (blue bars) and as calculated following the result of the above discussion for transforming energy production to 100% renewable for the group of 14 selected European countries as discussed in the text (orange bars).
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Figure 4
The hourly production of wind power covering the 15 largest countries in the European association for the cooperation of transmission system operators for electricity (ENTSO-E) for the period 2016–2019. The data are organized according to descending hourly production from the left to right, so that the hours with the least production are found to the right, as highlighted with the dotted box. Authors’ calculations based on [26].
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Figure 5
The area requirements in an OHC using intensities as discussed in the text, as a function of the fraction of solar PV energy in the system and with a constant 10% contribution from bioenergy . The blue curves refer to a temperate region (e.g., Europe) and the red curves refer to an OHC in a tropical region. The dash-dotted lines refer to the area required for solar energy while the broken lines refer to the wind-energy area.
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Figure 6
A visualization of the area requirements for sustainable life with 100% national renewable energy generation in countries with population densities of (a),(c) 1 pp hectare and (b),(d) 0.4 pp hectare; (a),(b) a region in the temperate zone, (c),(d) the area requirements in a tropical region. The colors are for biological diversity (blue), food production (dark orange), primary energy generation (yellow), and infrastructure (purple).
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